First quarterly decline in dwelling value since Q3 2022.
4.6%▲
RBA cash rate, 16-year high
20032026
Four hikes in 2026 reversed prior year's cuts.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, ASX, OECD. Every figure is in the story below.
Australia's housing credit book reached A$2,568 billion as the RBA lifted rates to a 16-year high, while the dwelling stock backing those loans recorded its first quarterly fall since 2022.
The RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review judges that most households and banks are well placed to absorb softer conditions, meaning the divergence between credit growth and collateral values has not yet produced system-level stress.
Private wages are growing 0.5 percentage points slower than underlying inflation, ending a brief real-wage recovery, and the Reserve Bank has answered with its highest cash rate since 2010.
Trimmed mean inflation has climbed 90 basis points from its trough to 3.6 per cent, and the engine is a public sector paying more while productivity stalls.
Scheduled repayments took 9.4% of household disposable income in the March quarter of 2026, down from a 10.1% peak in mid-2024, though the RBA has raised rates four times in 2026.
Australian dwelling stock values fell A$34 billion in the June 2026 quarter while household credit rose A$45.8 billion in the same window, mechanically worsening the national ratio of debt to dwelling values.
Headline GDP never shrank during the record migration surge, but ABS National Accounts show real GDP per capita fell for six consecutive quarters from June 2023, dropping A$363 per person by September 2024.