MacroBusiness · In the news · 13 Nov
MacroBusiness (David Llewellyn-Smith) reports that Middle East conflict is escalating, citing ships ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and reported Israeli plans for an Iran attack. Llewellyn-Smith notes that Brent crude and crack spreads jumped and LNG prices spiked, while US diesel inventories remain at perilous levels despite a modest recovery from falling exports.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 13 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that a sharp downturn in Australian property prices and transaction volumes is threatening to blow a large hole in east coast state budgets, which are already carrying heavy debt loads. S&P Global Ratings has warned the downturn could create an $8–$10 billion budget shortfall for state governments, while UBS economist Stephen Wu has modelled potential losses of up to $30 billion in stamp duty revenue across the forward estimates period.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 13 Nov
MacroBusiness, citing Leith van Onselen, reports that Brisbane and Perth dwelling values are now falling sharply after a period of solid growth, as a flood of new for-sale listings and downward price revisions from private data provider Cotality have reversed what were previously seen as bulletproof markets.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 12 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that Victoria's Department of Treasury and Finance will release a pre-election budget update showing net debt forecast to top $197 billion by mid-2030, and that Freedom of Information documents show the DTF warned incoming Treasurer Colin Brooks in August that rising debt and interest payments could trigger a downgrade of the state's AA credit rating.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 12 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that ABS mortgage commitment data for the September quarter of 2026 showed the total value of new mortgage commitments fell 15.5 per cent, with owner-occupier commitments down 5.3 per cent and investor commitments down 32.3 per cent. Leith van Onselen attributes the investor slump directly to federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 12 Nov
MacroBusiness contributor Tarric Brooker argues that China has played a significant role in preventing a repeat of 1970s-style energy price crises despite a Persian Gulf war that began in late February 2026, noting that while oil prices are significantly higher in nominal terms, the situation differs materially from the 1973 oil shock, particularly relative to the size of the global economy.
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The Guardian · In the news · 12 Nov
Greg Jericho, writing in The Guardian, argues that a combination of capital gains tax changes and RBA interest rate rises drove a 38 per cent annual fall in investor housing loans and a 4.6 per cent drop in owner-occupier loans in the year to September, with construction lending also under pressure from rising material costs linked to the AI datacentre boom. Jericho contends that while the CGT changes are working as intended to reduce investor activity, the fall in owner-occupier borrowing reflects the squeeze on household finances from rate rises occurring alongside weak real wage growth and rising unemployment.
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ABC · In the news · 11 Nov
A Productivity Commission interim report, released 11 November 2026 and commissioned by Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers, found that short regional flights cost on average 173 per cent more per kilometre than major city routes, with more than 90 per cent of regional and remote passengers flying with the Qantas Group or Virgin Australia and 72 per cent of routes served by just one carrier.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 11 Nov
MacroBusiness (Leith van Onselen) argues that Melbourne's experience since Victorian land-tax changes undermines the case that removing negative gearing and the 50 per cent CGT discount will push rents higher: the number of rental bonds on issue in Melbourne fell 3.8 per cent between June 2023 and June 2026 (from 556,470 to 535,570), yet Melbourne recorded the slowest rental growth and cheapest rents of the major capital cities, with Cotality data showing national rents rose just 0.4 per cent in the most recent quarter.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 11 Nov
MacroBusiness, citing the Scanlon Foundation's 2026 Mapping Social Cohesion Survey of 10,000 Australians, reports that one in three Australians (32 per cent) expect their lives to be worse in the next three to four years, roughly triple the share recorded when the survey began in 2006, and that measures of happiness have gradually declined over two decades. Author Leith van Onselen argues Australia should choose automation over immigration to lift productivity and living standards.
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ABC · In the news · 11 Nov
ABC's markets blog reports that CBA posted higher quarterly profit but its shares fell 1.2 per cent on the day, while ABS data showed new home loan commitments fell a record 15.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter, led by a 32.3 per cent quarterly collapse in investor lending. David Jones's receivers confirmed 19 store closures.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 10 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that Australian dwelling values across the five major capital cities have fallen 8.8 per cent since early April 2026, and projects a 10 per cent decline by Christmas at the current pace of -4.7 per cent per quarter. The article, written by Leith van Onselen, challenges HIA chief economist Tim Reardon's claim that prices will rebound 'very quickly' after Christmas, citing AMP's Shane Oliver's estimate that the gap between borrowing capacity and home prices has never been wider, at around $400,000, and Cotality data showing capital city listings are up 20.3 per cent over the past 12 months.
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The Guardian · In the news · 10 Nov
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey, published 10 November 2026, showed confidence among mortgaged households falling to its lowest level since 1994, with Westpac's Matthew Hassan saying the broader mood matched the depths of the GFC, the early-1990s recession and the onset of the Covid pandemic. RBA governor Michele Bullock, according to The Guardian, warned the year ahead would 'feel like a recession' amid persistent cost-of-living pressures and weak growth.
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The Guardian · In the news · 10 Nov
Economist Saul Eslake, writing in The Guardian, argues that Australia risks a recession it does not have to have, driven either by an AI asset-price collapse or by the RBA overtightening after five rate rises in 2026, and calls on the federal government to cut spending ahead of Myefo to relieve pressure on monetary policy. Eslake singles out the Western Australia GST deal, which he says gifts that state $6.5 billion a year it does not need.
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- Data agrees The RBA raised interest rates five times in 2026, according to Eslake's characterisation of governor Michele Bullock's remarks. Readings show 5 rate rises in 2026: Feb +0.25, Mar +0.25, May +0.25, Sep +0.25, Nov +0.25.
- Too early Eslake states that the RBA's modified Sahm rule threshold, set at a three-quarter percentage point rise in the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate relative to its low over the preceding 12 months, would be triggered in January next year if unemployment continues drifting up at its six-month average pace. Claim is a forecast about January next year; the period has not yet arrived as of the claim date.
Read it at The Guardian · Cash rate
MacroBusiness · In the news · 10 Nov
MacroBusiness reports, citing The Australian, that industry sources say the Albanese government is considering amending its proposed domestic gas reservation scheme, with one key contention being a requirement that LNG exporters make 110 per cent of forecast domestic gas demand available to Australian buyers, which the industry claims could suppress prices and discourage new exploration.
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Prime Minister of Australia · Announcement · 10 Nov
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is travelling to Türkiye, the Philippines and China to advance Australia's economic and climate interests, attending COP31, the ASEAN–Australia Summit, and the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. The Prime Minister's office says China is Australia's largest trading partner, with two-way goods and services trade reaching $326 billion last year.
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Prime Minister of Australia · Announcement · 10 Nov
The Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, announced that the Albanese Government will legislate mandatory AI safety and security protections through Australian AI Standards legislation, applying to all frontier AI companies operating in Australia, to be enforced by a new targeted regulator with significant penalty powers.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 10 Nov
MacroBusiness writer Leith van Onselen reports that Treasurer Jim Chalmers has asked Treasury officials in a 'structural reform branch' to develop new productivity policies for the December mid-year budget update, citing a Matthew Cranston report in The Australian. Van Onselen argues the move is insincere, asserting that Australia's productivity growth over the past decade has been among the poorest in the OECD.
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Assistant Treasurer · Announcement · 10 Nov
The Assistant Treasurer announced that Australia's largest non-bank lenders have begun sharing consumer data through the Consumer Data Right (CDR), allowing Australians to share data on home, car and personal loans alongside existing banking data to compare costs and find better deals. Smaller non-bank lenders are said to be required to commence sharing through the CDR in May 2027.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 10 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that Treasurer Jim Chalmers claimed on ABC's Insiders program that the Albanese government had found 'almost $180 billion in savings' across its budgets, with more than a third coming from the May 2026 budget alone. The article, by Tarric Brooker, asserts those claims have been professionally debunked, though the full rebuttal is behind a paywall.
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The Guardian · In the news · 10 Nov
UN climate chief Simon Stiell told the opening of Cop31 in Turkey that a fossil fuel price crisis, driven in part by Donald Trump's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz oil supply route, is 'spreading inflation like a cancer' around the world. The Guardian reports that Australia's climate change minister Chris Bowen is presiding over the negotiations, with both Turkey and Australia championing a new electrification goal to raise electricity's share of final energy consumption from one-fifth to one-third within ten years.
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The Guardian · In the news · 10 Nov
The Guardian's Patrick Commins reports that Treasury is under pressure to cut Labor's cheaper home battery rebate and electric vehicle fringe benefits tax exemption in the midyear budget update, with the battery scheme's projected cost blowing out from an original $2.3 billion to around $7.2 billion after a redesign, and as high as $14 billion before that redesign. Commins and quoted experts argue the economic case for cutting these programs ahead of larger fiscal pressures such as the NDIS ($54 billion in 2025-26), nuclear-powered submarines (up to $368 billion over the life of the AUKUS program, per the Parliamentary Budget Office), and diesel fuel tax credits for miners (about $11 billion a year) has not been made.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 10 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that following the Albanese government's May 2023 changes to the Working Holiday Maker programme under the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement, the number of UK citizens holding working holiday maker visas grew to 51,200 as of the September quarter of 2026, which the publication describes as roughly double the pre-change level. The article questions why Labor's immigration policy is now targeting this cohort.
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Prime Minister of Australia · Announcement · 9 Nov
The Prime Minister announced that the Australian Government is investing an additional $12 million to strengthen bushfire risk management and support the mental health and wellbeing of emergency first responders, covering improvements to the Australia Fire Danger Rating System, continuation of national bushfire intelligence and fire information services, and mental health support through Fortem extended to December 2027.
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ABC · In the news · 9 Nov
Nationals Leader Matt Canavan said the Coalition's proposed 'razor gang', announced by opposition leader Angus Taylor in a speech to Business Sydney, would target a 25 per cent cut in red tape, citing estimates that regulatory costs have roughly tripled over the last decade to around $160 billion a year for the Australian economy.
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MacroBusiness · In the news · 9 Nov
MacroBusiness reports that, following the RBA's fifth rate hike of 2026 to a cash rate of 4.85%, home prices across Australia's five major capital cities have fallen 8.6 per cent from their April peak, which Leith van Onselen describes as the equal-biggest decline in more than 40 years; CBA and AMP have both forecast a 15 per cent peak-to-trough fall, with Sydney tipped to drop 16 per cent and Brisbane and Perth 18 per cent.
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- Data agrees The RBA hiked interest rates for the fifth time in 2026, taking the official cash rate to 4.85 per cent, described as an 18-year high. 2026-11-04 reading shows 4.85 (+0.25); hikes in 2026: Feb, Mar, May, Sep, Nov = five hikes.
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