Evidence
RBA Hikes Without Mentioning Rents as Rent Inflation Halves
Everything this story rests on. If a figure is not here, we did not publish it.
The one number
4.6%
RBA cash rate target, percent, September 2026 — highest since November 2010.
The data
| Claim | Figure | Source | Period | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate raised to | 4.60% | RBA cash rate series (A2) | 29 Sep 2026 | 1 |
| Highest since | November 2010 | RBA cash rate series (A2) | 2026 | 1 |
| Rent CPI Q2 2026 | 3.56% annual | ABS CPI rent index series (derived) | Q2 2026 | 1 |
| Rent CPI Q1 2026 | 3.74% annual | ABS CPI rent index series (derived) | Q1 2026 | 1 |
| Rent CPI peak | 7.82% annual | ABS CPI rent index series (derived) | Q1 2024 | 1 |
| Trimmed mean Q2 2026 | 3.6% | ABS CPI 6401.0 | Q2 2026 | 1 |
| Trimmed mean Q1 2026 | 3.5% | ABS CPI 6401.0 | Q1 2026 | 1 |
| Net overseas migration 2023 | 530,620 persons | ABS National Population | 2023 | 1 |
| Net overseas migration 2025 | 300,955 persons | ABS National Population | 2025 | 1 |
| Dwelling completions Q4 2025 | 43,536 dwellings | ABS Building Activity | Q4 2025 | 1 |
| ASX implied hike probability, 3 November 2026 meeting | 19.3% | ASX rate market pricing | 4 Oct 2026 | 2 |
Sources
| Series | Publisher | Tier | Period | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash_rate_au ↗ | Reserve Bank of Australia | Tier 1 | 29 September 2026 | RBA cash rate target historical series (A2), 25 bp hike to 4.60% on 29 September 2026 |
| rent_cpi_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q1-Q2 2026 | ABS CPI rent sub-component quarterly data: Q1 2026 3.74%, Q2 2026 3.56% |
| trimmed_mean_cpi_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q1-Q2 2026 | ABS CPI Cat. 6401.0, trimmed mean annual change: 3.5% Q1 2026, 3.6% Q2 2026 |
| nom_annual ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | 2023 and 2025 | ABS net overseas migration: 530,620 in 2023; 300,955 in 2025 |
| dwelling_completions ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q4 2025 | ABS Building Activity, dwelling completions: 43,536 in Q4 2025 |
| rba_hike_prob_fundamentals_au ↗ | Caveat (derived) | Tier 2 | 6 October 2026 | Caveat fundamentals model, November 2026 RBA meeting hike probability: 85.3% |
| rba_hike_prob_market_au ↗ | ASX | Tier 2 | 6 October 2026 | ASX cash rate futures implied pricing: 0% probability of hike at November 2026 meeting |
Caveat
The RBA's September statement explicitly named energy, AI goods and domestic capacity as hike drivers. The correct reading is that policy tightened on non-rent grounds while the rent component was already self-correcting.
How to check this yourself
Follow the source links above. Each goes to the published series, not to our copy of it. Where we computed a figure rather than quoting one, the calculation is stated in the basis column. If you find an error, it gets a correction on the story.