Evidence
Six Quarters of Shrinking Slices Expose Australia's Per-Capita Recession
Everything this story rests on. If a figure is not here, we did not publish it.
The one number
A$24,971
Real GDP per capita, Q2 2026 (constant 2022-23 dollars).
The data
| Quarter | GDP per capita (qoq %) | Aggregate GDP (qoq %) | NOM annual (persons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | -0.3% | +0.3% | — |
| Q3 2023 | -0.3% | +0.4% | — |
| Q4 2023 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 530,620 |
| Q1 2024 | -0.1% | +0.3% | — |
| Q2 2024 | -0.2% | +0.2% | — |
| Q3 2024 | -0.1% | +0.3% | — |
Sources
| Series | Publisher | Tier | Period | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia real GDP per capita, quarterly growth ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2023 to Q3 2024 | National Accounts, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted |
| Australia real GDP, quarterly growth ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2023 to Q3 2024 | National Accounts, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted |
| Net overseas migration ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Year to December 2023 and December 2025 | National, state and territory population |
| Canada PBO modelling on migration cuts ↗ | Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Canada | Tier 1 | Published 23 January 2025, modelled to 2027 | Official fiscal and economic modelling |
| RBA cash rate and board statement ↗ | Reserve Bank of Australia | Tier 1 | 29 September 2026 | RBA monetary policy decision media release |
| Australia GDP per hour worked, annual change ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q1 2023 to Q4 2024 | National Accounts, seasonally adjusted |
Caveat
GDP per capita is a mean, not a median, so the contraction may have fallen unevenly across residents rather than being shared equally.
How to check this yourself
Follow the source links above. Each goes to the published series, not to our copy of it. Where we computed a figure rather than quoting one, the calculation is stated in the basis column. If you find an error, it gets a correction on the story.