Evidence
Underlying Inflation Hits 3.6% as Public Wages Outpace Output
Everything this story rests on. If a figure is not here, we did not publish it.
The one number
3.6%
Australia trimmed mean CPI, annual change, June quarter 2026
The data
| Metric | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trimmed mean CPI (trough) | June quarter 2025 | 2.7% | ABS |
| Trimmed mean CPI (latest) | June quarter 2026 | 3.6% | ABS |
| Headline CPI | June quarter 2026 | 3.94% | ABS (derived) |
| Public WPI (trough) | December quarter 2024 | 2.8% | ABS |
| Public WPI (secondary peak) | December quarter 2025 | 4.0% | ABS |
| Public WPI (latest) | June quarter 2026 | 3.4% | ABS |
| Private WPI (peak) | September quarter 2023 | 4.3% | ABS |
| Private WPI (latest) | June quarter 2026 | 3.1% | ABS |
| GDP per hour worked index | June quarter 2026 | 99.7 | ABS |
| GDP per hour worked, annual change | June quarter 2026 | -0.2% | ABS (derived) |
| Market GVA per hour worked index | June quarter 2026 | 100.4 | ABS |
| RBA hike probability (market pricing), 3 November meeting | 4 October 2026 | 19.3% | ASX |
Sources
| Series | Publisher | Tier | Period | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| trimmed_mean_cpi_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Published ABS CPI release, trimmed mean series |
| cpi_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Published ABS CPI release, headline series |
| wpi_public_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Published ABS Wage Price Index, public sector series |
| wpi_private_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Published ABS Wage Price Index, private sector series |
| gdp_per_hour_worked_index_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Published ABS National Accounts, GDP per hour worked index (2015-16=100) |
| gdp_per_hour_worked_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Derived annual change, ABS National Accounts |
| market_gva_per_hour_index_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | June quarter 2026 | Published ABS National Accounts, market sector GVA per hour worked index |
| rba_hike_prob_fundamentals_au ↗ | Caveat (derived) | Tier 2 | 6 October 2026 | Fundamentals model reading RBA published reaction function against current data |
| rba_hike_prob_market_au ↗ | ASX | Tier 2 | 6 October 2026 | ASX 30-day interbank futures implied probability |
Caveat
Non-market output is hard to value -- much government output is imputed from inputs rather than priced in a market -- and the public WPI re-acceleration reflects enterprise agreement timing rather than a proven structural shift.
How to check this yourself
Follow the source links above. Each goes to the published series, not to our copy of it. Where we computed a figure rather than quoting one, the calculation is stated in the basis column. If you find an error, it gets a correction on the story.