Evidence
Credit Surges as Collateral Falls and Real Wages Slip
Everything this story rests on. If a figure is not here, we did not publish it.
The one number
7.3%
Housing credit growth, 12 months to August 2026 (per cent).
The data
| Period | Housing credit growth (12m) | Cash rate |
|---|---|---|
| February 2024 | 4.2% | 4.35% |
| August 2024 | 5.0% | 4.35% |
| August 2025 | 6.1% | 3.60% |
| August 2026 | 7.3% | 4.35% |
| September 2026 | — | 4.60% |
Sources
| Series | Publisher | Tier | Period | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| credit_housing_12m_au ↗ | Reserve Bank of Australia | Tier 1 | August 2026 | D1 Financial Aggregates, 12-month growth in housing credit |
| cash_rate_au ↗ | Reserve Bank of Australia | Tier 1 | 30 September 2026 | Cash rate target, RBA official table |
| dwelling_stock_value_bn ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2026 | ABS catalogue 6523.0, Total Value of Residential Dwellings |
| household_credit_bn ↗ | Reserve Bank of Australia | Tier 1 | June 2026 | RBA D1 Financial Aggregates, total household credit outstanding |
| household_debt_income_au ↗ | Reserve Bank of Australia | Tier 1 | Q2 2026 | RBA E2 Household Finances, debt-to-income ratio |
| wpi_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2026 | ABS catalogue 6345.0, Wage Price Index, annual change |
| cpi_annual_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2026 | ABS catalogue 6401.0, Consumer Price Index, annual change |
| trimmed_mean_cpi_au ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2026 | ABS catalogue 6401.0, trimmed mean CPI, annual change |
| rba_hike_prob_market_au ↗ | ASX | Tier 2 | 6 October 2026 | ASX RBA Rate Indicator, implied probabilities for next RBA meeting |
| mean_dwelling_price ↗ | Australian Bureau of Statistics | Tier 1 | Q2 2026 | ABS catalogue 6523.0, mean price of residential dwellings |
| household_debt_to_income ↗ | OECD | Tier 1 | 2024 | OECD household debt indicator, net disposable income basis |
Caveat
The RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review judges that most households and banks are well placed to absorb softer conditions, meaning the divergence between credit growth and collateral values has not yet produced system-level stress.
How to check this yourself
Follow the source links above. Each goes to the published series, not to our copy of it. Where we computed a figure rather than quoting one, the calculation is stated in the basis column. If you find an error, it gets a correction on the story.