The Bottom Line
Updated Sunday 25 October 2026
The Treasurer told the Citi A50 Australian Economic Forum that Australia is an island of stability, growing faster than almost every G7 economy, with the IMF expecting that to continue for at least five more years. Assistant Minister Andrew Leigh separately released exposure draft legislation that would double the involuntary bankruptcy debt threshold from $10,000 to $20,000 and extend response times for bankruptcy notices.
The Treasurer acknowledged Treasury is revising its forecasts ahead of the December midyear update, with higher interest rates and inflation expected to produce softer growth and slightly higher unemployment. The RBA cash rate stands at 4.60 per cent after four rises this year, up a full point from 3.60 per cent at the start of 2026. The Treasurer said four hikes have already occurred this year, with Melbourne Cup day flagged as a possible fifth.
ABS figures show the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 4.7 per cent in September, a level also recorded in August; the trend rate has held at 4.6 per cent for two months after rising from 4.3 per cent in January. CEDA, cited by MacroBusiness, argues Australia's misery index has returned to near its post-pandemic peak, with inflation and borrowing costs now the primary source of economic stress rather than unemployment.
Annual headline CPI was 4.0 per cent in August; the trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation, is not yet published for August but headline has ranged between 3.5 and 4.6 per cent across 2026. MacroBusiness reports, without giving a figure, that capital city house prices are falling at a pace some analysts describe as the swiftest in decades, following changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.
Every figure is checked against official data or attributed to the body that announced it. Past editions